As you can see from the map I posted the other day, I can see the fucking future. Okay, in my defense, I'm no worse than any other random-ass person babbling about stuff I could not possibly know.
With that in mind I will now turn my immense power of soothsaying to predict what will happen in the second Trump presidency:
- Trump will not survive to the end of this presidential term. I don't mean metaphorically. I think he is a lot more unwell than he is letting on (and he really is pretty obviously unwell) and will end up dead or incapacitated before the end of 2028. JD Vance will be the 48th President.
- The trans crackdown will be half-assed, at least on the part of the federal government. The Department of Education will change some regulations removing protections from trans kids, and there will be new rules about federal funding of gender affirming care. The federal government won't do much more than that. But it will give private transphobes and local officials permission to go after trans people. Which means there will be places in the U.S,. where it is safer and a whole lot less safe to be trans. (That is already true to some extent, but I predict that will be even more true under the new administration) And of course the change in tone will encourage private violence against trans people, which the federal government will do nothing to stop.
- The crackdown against immigrants will not be half-assed, but it also won't be consistent. Wealthy immigrants, even if they used to be "illegal" (like Elon) will be left alone. But for others, especially non-white immigrants, the crackdown will be methodical and extremely cruel. It will not be limited to people who are undocumented either. Legal immigrants will have their legal status removed and even those who have become citizens might face denaturalization and deportation. Any non-wealthy person who was not born in the U.S. is potentially at risk and whoever ends up in their crosshairs are not going to have any of their rights respected.
- There is going to be major erosion in the rule of law as the courts end up blessing Trump's moves that seem to blatantly violate the laws or constitution, and as Trump resumes packing the courts with fresh out of law school Federalist Society members.
- The economy will go into a major recession before the end of Trump's term. The loss of immigrant labor and tariffs will bring back inflation. People will be upset but Trump, and the Trump-compliant media, will work hard to spin it into a hangover from Bidenomics.
- Trump will try to withdraw from NATO, maybe even announce that the U.S. is, but that will be a lot more complicated than he realizes (75 years of military/intelligence/diplomatic infrastructure built on the assumption that there is a NATO alliance and a network of NATO facilities will be had to untangle). I'm not sure how far he will get into that project before he stops being President and any successor is unlike to be as anti-NATO as Trump is.
Those are my thoughts at the moment. Since I said it, every single one will be 100% correct, right?