I was convinced that Bibi would be a dick and insist on delaying the deal until after Trump gets into office, as a final snub of Biden and a way to curry favor with the new administration. But it looks like it is a done-enough deal to announce and will go into effect on Sunday (the last day of the Biden Administration).
For the past year what each party would agree to was clear, but they just seemed to be irreconcilable. Since January 2024, Hamas has offered to release all the hostages in return to a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdraw from Gaza. Israel has insisted it only be a temporary ceasefire without any withdrawal. It looks like what they got is a partial release of the hostages, a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces, and a six-week ceasefire.
In my opinion this is absolutely good news. I even see a possibility that this could turn into a permanent ceasefire because Trump is so determined to get credit for not having a war in Israel on his watch, he is going to put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to not restart hostilities when the six week period expires in early March. (That would also require Hamas to release the remaining hostages that aren't covered by this deal--I don't know if they would do that without a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.)
I also wonder what this means for Netanyahu's future. Not long ago the Israeli public seemed done with him because of his failure to prevent the 10/7 attack and his criminal case was looking increasingly threatening. But now that he is an indicted war criminal and enough time has passed to dull some of the calls for new leadership, will Israelis rally enough support to him to survive?
