It's that time again! As I have almost every year since 2008, I'm going to toss a bunch of darts at the predictions dart board. What I write below is what I think, at this moment as the year changes, of what will probably happen in 2026. It doesn't necessarily mean things that I want to happen. In fact, as you will see, there's a lot of stuff I don't want to happen but think, nevertheless, that it will anyway.
As always I am trying to limit my predictions to things that will be easy to determine at the end of the year whether each prediction is right or wrong. So I am not going to predict stuff like "the U.S. will lose a lot of credibility internationally in 2026," even though I think that will probably be true, because it is about something that isn't measurable or easily determined to be either right or wrong.
Got it?
Ready or not, here they come:
1. Trump will no longer be President at the end of 2026. (I am not predicting whether he will die, or be removed because of incapacitation, but it will be one of those two. I don't think he will resign or be impeached and convicted this year)
2. The war in Ukraine will still be an active shooting war at the end of 2026.
3. The White House ballroom will not be built by the end of 2026.
4. At least 3 members of Trump's cabinet at the beginning of 2026 will no longer be in the cabinet at the end of the year.
5. While there will be a "ceasefire" in Gaza in the sense that everyone will still refer to a ceasefire as if there is one, Israel will still be doing raids and bombings in the territory by the end of the year. More specifically, Israel will kill at least 20 people in Gaza in December 2026.
6. The inflation rate will be over 5% by the end of 2026.
7. The U.S. will be in a recession at some point in 2026.
8. The Democrats will win a majority of the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
9. The Republicans will maintain their majority in the Senate (or it will be a tie Senate, which will still be a Republican majority because the Vice President will be a Republican)
10. The federal government will attempt to litigate some of the House or Senate race results.
11. Sam Alito or Clarence Thomas will either no longer be on the Supreme Court or will announce their retirement before the end of 2026.
12. The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump Administration on the tariff case (Learning Resources v. Trump).
13. The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump Administration on the birthright citizenship cases (Trump v. Washington and Trump v. Barbara)
14. The Supreme Court will rule in the Trump Administration's favor in the vast majority (over 65% of the time) of other cases.
15. The U.S. stock market will crash in 2026.
16. There will be at least one shutdown of the federal government in 2026.
17. Trump's approval rating will be underwater (meaning his unfavorability rating will be higher than his favorability rating) for either all of 2026 or all of 2026 up until the point that he is no longer president (assuming I am right about #1), as measured by Nate Silver's polling average model.
18. At least three members of Trump's cabinet will leave their job in 2026.
19. The federal inflation rate will be higher than 5% by the end of 2026.
20. I guess I gotta do my Central Asian leader prediction. Since I flip back and forth on this one, for this year I will predict that at least one of the five former Soviet Stans (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan (officially the Kyrgyz Republic) will change their head of state in 2026.
21. Nicolas Maduro will be President of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
22. While the bombing of boats in the Southern Caribbean and off the coast of Central and South America in the Pacific Ocean will continue at the beginning of 2026, there will be at least one big fuckup or embarrassing event that happens with one of them in 2026. Embarrassing event means something like a botched strike (the victims survive and get away), a target that later turns out to be someone who should not be targetted, a strike captured on video that embarrasses the U.S./Trump Administration in some way, etc.
23. Benjamin Netanyahu will no longer be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2026 (yeah I have made this prediction before. But I will be right this time!)
So... do you think any of these are right? Turn in at the end of 2026 to find out!
