it looks to me like this was nothing but a provocation. despite israel's alarm about hamas coming to power, it was abiding by its unilaterally announced cease-fire. israel is trying to portray hamas as a bunch of crazy killers (to some extent they are right. there are certainly crazies under the hamas umbrella), but the group just wasn't playing the role it was supposed to play. so they did something they knew would inflame the palestinian public. and it looks like it might work.
that's the only story that makes sense to me right now. feel free to set me straight if i'm wrong. unless i hear some other plausible explanation for the raid, part of the blame for whatever comes next rests with the israeli government.
UPDATE: both golden boy and cathy tell me in the comments that the israelis raided because the palestinians were expected to release a prisoner who had assassinated an israeli cabinet minister.
UPDATE2: another theory to explain the raid is that it may have been driven by israeli electoral politics:
The raid came just two weeks before Israel's general election and boosted Olmert's image as a tough-minded leader. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, a member of Olmert's centrist Kadima Party, dismissed allegations by Palestinians and critics at home that the operation, which involved some 1,000 troops, including elite commandos, was timed to win over hardline voters.UPDATE3: now it looks like my original assumption may be correct after all. it's not all that clear anymore whether the monitors left their post because they felt at risk, or if they were pulled out because they were warned the attack was coming.
"Got 'em!" gloated one banner newspaper headline, above a large photo of blindfolded, handcuffed Palestinian militant leader Ahmed Saadat being led away by Israeli troops in the West Bank town of Jericho.
