does israel realize that it may be doing hezbollah a favor with this offensive into lebanon?
since the syrian occupation ended hezbollah has been under pressure to disarm. actually, they were required to disarm under the terms of the ta'if accord that ended the lebanese civil war, but when syria controlled the country it was willing to look the other way. when syria left, hezbollah tried to rebrand itself as a legitimate political party. the problem was that they hadn't disarmed, a prerequisite for participating in the political process.
one of the arguments hezbollah raised for not disarming is the threat of israeli invasion. in the arab world israel is often viewed as an expansionist land-hungry power that dreams of controlling all the land between the nile and euphrates river. hezbollah effectively is the government in southern lebanon, where the israeli security zone used to be. they moved in when the israelis moved out. the national government doesn't have much of a presence there. hezbollah argued that because the national government cannot effectively protect lebanon against israeli invasion along its southern border, hezbollah had to keep its arms.
it's hard for me to see hezbollah's recent capture of two israeli soldiers as anything other than a provocation. they watched the capture of a soldier outside gaza trigger a full-scale invasion of the territory. what better way to prove they need to stay armed than to provoke their own strike against lebanon?
i don't know if they expected that israel would actually do an actual invasion of lebanon. maybe they just expected retaliatory strikes (that's probably what i would have guessed), but i think israel's attack will probably end up doing them a massive favor. israel's bombing of beirut international airport and its blockage of their ports, will hit lebanon's western-oriented professional class the hardest. and they were the very people who were calling for hezbollah to disarm. these were the people who were on the streets protesting the syrian occupation in february 2005. lebanese nationalism among this group is quite strong. even though they are dominated by lebanese christians and otherwise would not be hezbollah's friends, they could rally to hezbollah's cause of defending lebanon from foreign invasion.
and if the blockade of lebanon continues for an extended period of time, lebanon would become dependent on syria for any goods from the outside world. another things that israel probably doesn't want.
the potential for blowback against the israelis for taking this action is huge. this isn't the 1980s anymore, when some lebanese welcomed the israeli invasion because they thought it might end the civil war. and in the long term this might just end up strengthening hezbollah's influence on the country, increasing its dependence on syria, and turning the lebanese professional class solidly against israel.
