Tuesday, March 13, 2007

super gonzo post

intrade, the online futures market, is offering a gonzales resignation contract. (if you're in a betting mood, click on the link, then hit the "current events" link on the left margin, then "white house." a cheney resignation contract is already up there too). (via JMM)

that being said, i predict that he won't resign, at least not anytime soon. last week, i wondered whether the walter reed resignations were a sign that the bush administration would stop being so resignation adverse and start acting more like bush's predecessors. but i've since decided that walter reed is a special case because it cuts to the heart of the administration's "support the troops" slogan in the way that other scandals do not. i think that bush and gonzales will try to ride this one out, just as they've tried to do with everything else. (and i stand by that even considering gonzales' galbraith score of one)

poking around my archives, i was recently reminded that i did not oppose gonzales' nomination to AG when it was first announced. (i did, however, start backpedaling almost immediately. i took back one of my reasons a day later, then completely flipped soon afterwards, then came down solidly against as the confirmation progressed).

anyway, looking at my reasons back then, it's amazing how badly i called it. i seemed to have a surprising faith in gonzales' credibility as a lawyer, simply because he still practiced as one and wasn't just a politician with a law degree like his predecessor john ashcroft. the problem with gonzales is that he is still acting like he's bush's private lawyer, rather than an independent public figure who is hired by the president but is supposed to make independent legal judgments. i guess you're always looking at a problem backwards. i wanted the new AG to be different from ashcroft. i didn't think about what other problems gonzales would himself bring to the table.

one thing i did get right in my initial gonzales post is my claim that the AG appointment will keep gonzales off the supreme court. i think that one has borne out. because of his service as AG, gonzales will never ever be on the supreme court. in fact, i doubt if he can realistically get any federal judgeship. bush might have hoped to groom him for the court when he originally appointed gonzales, but that guy has picked up too much baggage as AG to make him viable anymore.