Sunday, December 30, 2007

"edwards surges..."

i'm continually surprised by how political reporters don't understand some of the most basic concepts behind statistical sampling.

a poll showing three candidates at 24%, 23%, and 22% with a 5% margin of error is a statistical tie. the fact that those same three candidates score have changed by 3-4% since the last poll (again, the MOE is +/-5%) means that you can't really say that there has been any change at all.