Monday, February 04, 2008


all this time i've been wondering who would pull off the republican nomination. but it really looks like mccain's got it.

it's funny how it was the republican race that got people wondering about a brokered convention. and yet now it's pretty clear that the republican nominee will be decided tomorrow whereas the democratic nominee will not. the only floor fight scenario left is on the democratic side.

it also occurs to me that mccain will owe his nomination to the fact that almost all the republican races are winner-take-all states. if the republicans assigned their delegates proportionally (like the democrats do in almost every super-tuesday state), romney would pick up some delegates tomorrow and his candidacy would probably survive until at least the next round of primary votes. likewise, if the democrats had more winner-take-all states, clinton would be in a lot better position to clinch it tomorrow.

the party insiders who hate mccain and are trying to prop up romney have only themselves to blame by setting up the system like this in the first place. it's funny, going with winner-take-all was probably designed to deter insurgent candidates. insurgents often cannot win a state outright with the party leadership against them, so in a proportionate-vote system their best bet is to do a strong enough showing to pick up a bunch of delegates along the way. this time the system is working the other way. even if romney is close behind mccain in a bunch of states, he will pick up zero delegates for his efforts and it will doom his candidacy.

you the big wigs on the right are unhappy when billy kristol uses words like dyspepsia.