another factor cutting against an israeli attack against iran is the bush administration's efforts to secure a status of forces agreement with iraq.
as i've said before, israel can't attack iran without american acquiescence because the israeli planes would have to cross through iraqi airspace to reach iran, airspace that the u.s. currently controls. but right now the bush administration is trying to arm-twist the iraqi government to agree to a status of forces agreement. the SOFA under negotiation deals with a lot of issues, including whether the american military will continue to have "iraqi permission" to control iraq's airspace. an attack on iran is not a popular idea with the maliki government, a government that has close ties to tehran. and having israeli warplanes fly across iraq to bomb another muslim country isn't popular with the general iraqi population either. and this year is an election year in iraq, with an iraqi public solidly against the american presence in the country. which is why iraqi officials are quick to deny rumors that israelis already are practicing in iraqi airspace. even the suggestion that they might be helping the israelis attack iran is politically toxic.
so if israel did go ahead and attack iran, it would further damage the bush administration's chances of getting a SOFA with iraq. which is yet another reason why the u.s. would be reluctant to give the okay for such an attack. at least until a SOFA is completed.
maybe that's why the bush administration wanted the SOFA to be done by the end of july. but given how badly the negotiations have gone for the bush administration, i don't think they'll finish before the iraqi elections.
