so the bush-era SOFA is officially dead. the current mandate for u.s. troops to in iraq expires the end of the year. so technically, they need to negotiate something if american forces are to stay beyond december 31, 2008. it's going to be hard to get even a temporary extension past the iraqi parliament unless it also includes a timetable for withdrawal, something the bush administration won't do.
of course, this is pretty much where we were last year. but the troops are still there. how did they do it? easy, maliki agreed to an extension but he never submitted it to parliament for ratification. which means that the current mandate is invalid under the iraq constitution (you know the one that this country wrote) and the presence of u.s. troops is already illegal. but aside from a bunch of pissed off iraqi M.P.s, everyone else has just ignored the issue and instead pretends that next year is the big problem. i expect by the end of the year, the legalities of the american mandate will once again be swept under the rug.
with the death of bush's SOFA dream and given my last post, does this now mean that an israeli attack on iran is now going to happen? i still don't think it will. but it does make it a little more likely.
