Wednesday, December 03, 2008

filibuster proof was never in the cards

i don't get why so many people are making a big deal about the fact that there will be less than 60 democrats in the senate. sixty is the number you need to prevent a filibuster, but unlike the decision of which party gets to be the majority, a cloture vote is a vote, not effectively a party-line head count.1 it's very rare for all democrats to vote exactly the same on any issue. when the media reports a "party line vote", it's almost always qualified by the word "mostly" or "almost" because inevitably there's a small group of senators who cast a vote against most of their party.

in other words, getting 60 democrats in the senate does not make the entire obama agenda filibuster-proof. on individual votes, the blue dogs will do their blue dog thing,l individual senators will pander to their local interests and/or lobbyists, et cetera. if you really want a filibuster-proof majority you need quite a few more than 60, enough to overcome the votes lost to party-crossers and the general inability of democrats to muster party discipline.

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1-it is true that there is a pro-forma vote over who gets to be the majority party. but with the exception of the independents, the vote of each member is already pre-pledged to go for their respective party. that's why there is wooing of independents like jim jeffords and joe lieberman but not the moderates affiliated with each party.