Friday, March 11, 2011

projecting libya

qadhafi looked like a goner not to long ago, but he's looking like a stayer now. it just goes to show the dangers of projecting forward whatever is happening at the moment into the future. two weeks ago the rebels were advancing, so i (like a lot of people) assumed they would continue to advance. then the rebels stalled out. so i again assumed that is how things would continue to go and imagined the possibility of an extended stalemate. now the rebels are in retreat, so, of course, i'm now thinking that qadhafi will eventually crush the rebellion and regain control of the entire country.

but aren't i just doing the same thing i have all along: projecting whatever is happening now into the future? haven't i learned my lesson yet?

probably not. even as i write this post is still believe that the rebel movement will collapse. any other scenario just seem unrealistic to me. probably just as unrealistic as qadhafi hanging on seemed two weeks ago.

still, it's disturbing to think about what my being right this time would mean for the people in the rebelling areas (not to mention the libyans in the places that never fell under rebel control but will still have to live under that ruthless megalomaniac). even if qadhafi does regain control, a post-rebellion libya will be facing a new landscape of extreme international isolation, economic sanctions and possible international indictments for war crimes. there's no going back to how things were before.

at least that's what i think at this particular moment.