Thursday, October 04, 2012


historically debates haven't had much effect on presidential races. but most of the time the "winner" of the debate is itself debatable. this morning it looks like audience surveys and the pundits are almost universally saying that mittens won. so i wonder if this debate will make a difference, and i'm guessing that it probably will give romney a real boost. it will take a few days before we start seeing any effect in the polls and a week or so before we have a clear picture whether obama's weak performance translated into any romney bump.

though i am expecting a romney bump, i'm still not convinced this will change the ultimate result of the election. if you look state-by-state (i.e. how the presidential race is actually decided), it hasn't been close at all. obama is far enough ahead in places like ohio that he can afford to lose several percentage points. but if it changes the dynamic of the race, setting obama up for further erosion in his support, that could be a really big deal.