Monday, November 05, 2012

election prediction 2012

last time i got everything right but missouri (which meant i was off by only 3,903 votes. missouri was so close in 2008, it was the last state to be called, two weeks after election day). i probably won't do nearly as well this year. plus with people like silver and wang, it feels a little stupid to put my gut-level feelings about the race out there. on the other hand, i have been following silver and wang's sites for months. their projections have no-doubt sunk deep into my subconscious by now. so maybe this is less of a gut level thing and more like straight plagiarism. the below map is essentially the states those two are currently predicting, minus colorado. because they can't be 100% right, right?

i created this map using the real clear politics site. note that i used the "likely obama" (as opposed to the "solid obama") color for the blue states. not because i think obama is less than solid to take these states. i just liked the "likely" color better.