Friday, September 27, 2013


I think there will neither be a government shutdown next week nor a default on the U.S. debt because Congress does not extend the debt ceiling before mid-October. I also predict that the President won't have to resort to anything unusual, like a platinum coin or the constitutional argument, to avoid a default. Both won't happen because Boehner will break the Hastert Rule and let a clean continuing resolution and debt ceiling increase go to a vote. It will then pass with all or almost all democratic votes and some republican votes.

Obviously, I could be wrong. But this just all feels like a bunch of grandstanding and theater by the ignoramus tea party faction of the GOP before Boehner inevitably rolls to save the economy but (probably) sacrifice his speakership. Despite everything, I still think that the money guys ultimately call the shots in this country. And actually, Boehner's capitulation would be the best result for the teatards too, as it would allow them to play the martyr without letting the country see the price for their recklessness.

ASIDE: I think the Hastert Rule should be called the "Hastur Rule", because even though it is behind the current dysfunction in the House it remains mostly unspoken whenever people discuss what is going on right now.