Friday, January 10, 2014

Statistical update

Probably no one care about this but me, but the December 2013 unemployment rate is out and it clocks in at 6.7% and that is below 7.0% which means I get a half point for my 2013 prediction #19.

Revised final score for last year's predictions is 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong, a 62% success rate. That's still my worst rate yet, but 2% higher than it would be if unemployment was 7.0 or above! I have updated the "Grading my 2013 Predictions" post. The December 2013 rate will probably be revised, so there is a chance that I may have to update this again. However, I think it is unlikely that the revised figure will add as much as 0.3%. That would be a huge revision. So that is unlikely to happen and I probably will keep my half point.

(Sorry if I come across as callous about unemployed people. 6.7% is still too high. I'm just playing my foolish game. No disrespect to anyone is intended.)