Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Will this change Cochran's behavior?

Thad Cochran squeaked his way to victory in the Mississippi Republican primary runoff vote yesterday. Because it's Mississippi, where Democrats have little hope of winning in a state-wide election, he has effectively won his reelection to the Senate. (sorry, Travis!)

Cochran's 50.8% to 49.2% win was a margin of less than 6400 votes. Considering Cochran's last minute appeal to black voters and the turnout figures for predominantly black areas, it is quite likely that Thad will owe his Senate seat to black Democrat crossover voters.

I wonder whether that will have any affect Cochran's voting behavior in the future. If this is a one-time thing, it doesn't have to. Unless he believes he will face another McDaniel-like close race in the future that will require another bail out from black voters, there will probably be no penalty if he pitches the concerns of black Mississippians overboard. But Cochran (I understand) is a human being Maybe he will feel some notion of indebtedness to that community. But I guess I'll believe that when I see it.