Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Reading the data

If Harry Enten is right, then the real winners are the Democrats. Enten claims that last week's GOP debate helped Fiorina, Rubio, Carson, and Cruz, and hurt Walker, Trump, and Bush. In order words, of the three people who I think have a real shot at the nomination (Jeb!, Walker, and Rubio), the debate hurt two out of the three and only helped a single candidate who has a plausible chance of being the nominee. Furthermore, the debate really hurt Walker (Enten notes "Walker is the only candidate who lost ground in every single post-debate poll.") who, frankly, is the worst of the three plausibles.