Friday, March 04, 2016

Only Florida Man can save him!

Rubio thinks he has a better chance at beating Trump in Florida than in any other winner-take-all state. Why would he ever think that? His poll numbers have him averaging 18.7% behind Trump. I don't see how he can make up such a huge gap up in just 11 days.

I guess I could be wrong. Nate Silver's model has Trump the clear favorite but still gives Marco a 31% chance of winning, which is terrible but not impossible. Not that I want to doubt the gay wizard, but I can't help but believe that the only reason that anyone thinks that Rubio will win Florida is because of the home state advantage fallacy.