Wednesday, October 12, 2016

This presidential election is done

As of this moment, my metric for deeming the election over has been satisfied. The 538 Polls Only forecast has Clinton's chances at winning TX at 15.3% which is greater than Trump's 12.9% chance of winning the presidency. Clinton will never win TX, which means I am completely confident that Trump will pull off an even less likely win of the presidency. Consider me officially overconfident.

(Okay, this is a little volatile. In the brief time it took me to get the above screenshot and write this post, Trump's chances of winning the presidency ticked up to 13.3%. Clinton's chances in TX still stand at 15.3%, so I'm still all good overconfidence-wise. I never really thought about what should happen to my confidence if the threshold is reached, and then not reached later on. I guess I'll burn that bridge when I get to it.)