As of this moment, my metric for deeming the election over has been satisfied. The 538 Polls Only forecast has Clinton's chances at winning TX at 15.3% which is greater than Trump's 12.9% chance of winning the presidency. Clinton will never win TX, which means I am completely confident that Trump will pull off an even less likely win of the presidency. Consider me officially overconfident.
(Okay, this is a little volatile. In the brief time it took me to get the above screenshot and write this post, Trump's chances of winning the presidency ticked up to 13.3%. Clinton's chances in TX still stand at 15.3%, so I'm still all good overconfidence-wise. I never really thought about what should happen to my confidence if the threshold is reached, and then not reached later on. I guess I'll burn that bridge when I get to it.)
(Okay, this is a little volatile. In the brief time it took me to get the above screenshot and write this post, Trump's chances of winning the presidency ticked up to 13.3%. Clinton's chances in TX still stand at 15.3%, so I'm still all good overconfidence-wise. I never really thought about what should happen to my confidence if the threshold is reached, and then not reached later on. I guess I'll burn that bridge when I get to it.)
