Tuesday, May 22, 2018

The threats, they are empty

Few few things about this:

1. Paul Ryan is trying hard to stop the immigration vote. The problem for him is that proponents of DACA protection are using a discharge petition to force a vote, which is a process that bypasses the speaker. If the DACA vote happens, it will be despite Ryan's efforts, not because of them.

2. Paul Ryan is leaving as speaker at the end of the year. So basically the conservatives' threat is: "do what we want or we will make you leave the job you are already quitting a few months earlier."

3. If Ryan leaves that could set off a civil war over his replacement, right before a midterm election that conservatives are expected to lose, which will both make them lose more and fritter away the last few months that die-hard conservatives have to get anything they want passed in the House.

I don't know if this gambit to force a vote on immigration bills in the House will work (proponents still need five more Republican votes, which seems like a lot to me). But if the effort fails, it won't be because of the Freedom Caucus' threat to remove Ryan as speaker.