Tuesday, January 01, 2019

2019 Predictions

Hey look, a whole new year to predict a bunch of stuff about, so then 12 months later I can see how completely wrong I am!

As I say every year, the following are what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen. I am only listing the predictions I have that I think will be objectively measurably at the end of the year (for better grading on December 31, 2019). I'm leaving out all my more vague feelings about 2019.

1. Julian Assange will no longer be in the Ecuadoran Embassy in London by the end of 2019.

2. Mueller will indict at least one member of the Trump family in 2019.

3. Trump will pardon at least one person who is indicted by Mueller.

4. The UK and EU will agree to delay the March 29, 2019 deadline for Brexit.

5. There will be at least one declared primary challenger of Trump for the GOP nomination by the end of 2019.

6. There will be no clear Democratic front-runner (meaning no one polling over 40%) for President at the end of 2019.

7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be below where it was on December 31, 2018 by the end of 2019.

8. The US unemployment rate will be over 4.5% at the end of 2019 (it is currently 3.7% as of November 2018, the most recent month with available data).

9. Russia will commit at least one significant new belligerent act against Ukraine in 2019.

10.  Mick Mulvaney will no longer be White House Chief of Staff at the end of 2019.

11. Sarah Huckabee Sanders will no longer be White House Press Secretary at the end of 2019.

12. The Supreme Court will not issue any rulings that significantly limits abortion rights in 2019 (I am not counting the decision not to take a case as a significant ruling).

13. The current (as of 1/1/19) partial government shutdown will end in 2019, but it will be the longest government shutdown in American history. (Length to beat: 21 days)

14. Trump's approval in the will fall below 30% for the first time in 2019. (For the last few few yearsI have used the Gallup daily presidential approval poll, then the Gallup weekly presidential approval poll (when it replaced the daily) to measure these kinds of predictions. But I read that the Gallup weekly is being replaced with a Gallup monthly and that is too long for my tastes. So this time I will measure my success for this prediction using the Real Clear Politics presidential approval polling average)

15. NAFTA 2.0 (aka the USMCA, although most people will still call it "Nafta") will not be ratified by the U.S. Senate in 2019.

16. At least some of Trump's federal tax returns will be public by the end of 2019.

17. Benjamin Netanyahu will not be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2019 (yeah, I know I did that one last year (see #23) and it did not pan out. I'm trying it again!)

18. The Trump Administration will attempt to extradite Fethullah Gulen to Turkey, but the attempt will be challenged in court (I'm not predicting how the court challenge will turn out).

19. At least 5 Republican U.S. Senators and U.S. Representatives will announce they will not run for reelection in 2020. (I mean three announcing in 2019. Lamar Alexander does not count).

20. At least 3 more members of Trump's cabinet will be fired or resign in 2019.

21. At least one Trump nominee for a cabinet position will be rejected by the Senate (that includes a nominee's withdrawal before the actual vote).

22. Trump will still be President at the end of 2019, and there will be no vote to impeach him throughout 2019.

23. The Mueller investigation will end in 2019.

24. There will be U.S. military forces of some kind (maybe just special forces) on the ground in Syria at the end of 2019.

25. Mohamed Bin Salman will still be effectively in charge of Saudi Arabia or he will effectively and officially in charge (if his father dies) at the end of 2019. (In other words, MBS will not lose any power in KSA during 2019).

26. The war in Yemen will still be raging and there will be no end in sight. (although I am not ruling out the possibility that South Yemen might secede and that territory might end the year largely at peace).

27. In Malawi, Peter Mutharika will lose his campaign for reelection in 2019 (and so the only head of state that I personally know will no longer be in power by the end of the year).

Can't wait to see how stupid these all turn out to be! Tune in just before midnight on December 31, 2019 to see how I do.