Sunday, March 17, 2019

does the Trump campaign have a plan?

I’m really curious how the Trump campaign people plan to deal with the fact that two states will bar him from the ballot in the 2020 race unless he releases his tax returns and a bunch more states are likely to follow before that election. The Constitution gives states broad discretion to decide the qualifications for getting on their ballot. I don’t think a court challenge to these laws will work. So what will he do? Will it get him to release the returns? Will he simply write off those states in the election? Will he try a massive write-in campaign just to keep his returns hidden?

Has anyone in his camp even thought about this stuff?

ADDING (3/18/19): Actually it looks like the Constitutional issue is less clear. States can't use their ballot rules to impose additional qualifications for president. (So they could not, for example, exclude a candidate who is under age 40 from the ballot because the constitution sets the age threshold at 35). The Courts could consider the rule requiring a candidate to publicize their tax returns as effectively adding a qualification for the office. I don't think that is what this is, because anyone could release their tax returns if they want. But with a conservative (and often overtly partisan, IMHO) majority on the Supreme Court, it would not be too surprising if the Trumpies are relying on the Courts to knock these state laws down.