Wednesday, September 25, 2019

I think it is Coats (please let it be Coats)

There has been some speculation of who submitted the whistleblower complaint to the DNI. In the last 24 hours, lots of people have suggested it could be John Bolton. Bolton is a vindictive asshole. I could definitely imagine him trying to shiv the administration on his way out. But he is also a creature of pure partisanship. I can't imagine him being bothered at all by the President's calls to Ukraine to gin up a bogus investigation of Biden's son. Maybe Bolton witnessed those calls and, while not bothered by them, saw an opportunity to get back at the Trump Administration, but I still don't think he would have filed this complaint. If Bolton wanted to get back at the Administration, he would do it in a way that would have advanced what he wants (i.e. a war), not something he really does not want (strengthening the Democrats' hand).

My pet theory is that it is Dan Coats. Coats was Trump's Director of National Intelligence until he resigned on August 15, 2019. Coats' resignation was three days after the whistleblower complaint was filed on August 12. By this summer, he was one of the last members of the Trump administration who would sometimes publicly differ from the President's official positions. (e.g. Coats released the intelligence community's assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 Presidential election at the same time that President Trump denied that had happened).

It is also worth noting that if the whistleblower is Coats, it will make the impeachment trial a lot more interesting. Coats was a U.S. Senator between 1989 and 1999, and then again between 2011 and 2017. He seems to have been fairly well liked. When he was confirmed to be Director of National Intelligence, this was at a time that many of Trump's initial appointees were just squeaking by with only between 51 and 54 votes, Coats was approved by a vote of 85-12. The fact that he was once a Republican Senate colleague will make it really hard for GOP Senators to come down hard on him. People have noted, for example, that every U.S. Senator voted to confirm Jeff Sessions even though he was a marginal figure who was not well-liked by his colleagues, because of some weird sense of loyalty within the Republican Senate caucus.

That said, the only account of Coats' statement about the complaint make it seem like it wasn't him (even though most of his quotes are just him saying he can't discuss it). But I still think he is the most likely contender. Also, it would be awesome for the impeachment effort if it is him.