The predictions I made last year are here but I've cut and pasted each one into this post so you don't even need to click if you don't want to.
1. Joseph Biden will announce he is not running for reelection in 2024.
Wrong. I guess I thought that was plausible a year ago. I always say these predictions are what I think will happen not necessarily what I want to happen. But I think sometimes what I want to happen does creep in.
2. Donald Trump will be indicted for at least one crime in 2023.
Right! 91 times right, in fact! But I'm only going to count this right once.
3. Trump will still be running for President at the end of 2023 (i.e. he will not announce he is no longer running, and he will still be alive)
Right! Okay this was a bit of a gimme. Trump wasn't ever going to announce he wasn't running. He could have dropped dead. So it was a half gimme. I still get points for gimmes.
4. No Supreme Court Justices will leave the Court or announce they are leaving the Court in 2023.
Right! Barring a sudden death, we're probably stuck with these set of yahoos until the next Republican president. All the really old ones are conservative and there is no way they are stepping down without assurances that their successor will continue the reactionary court.
5. Republicans in the House will launch several (2+) investigations into the Biden White House and/or the Biden family, but it will not have any clear impact on Biden's popularity or the Democrats other than exciting Republicans.
I'm going to call this right even though there are a few details that are arguable. First, it is not easy to count how many investigations there have been. James Comer has led investigations that he groups under the broad umbrella of the Biden family investigation. But it looks to me like he has tossed every bullshit rightwing conspiracy theory about Joe Biden, his kids, his brother, or whatever else they are ranting about on Fox News this week into a big mess that only makes sense if you are snuggled deep into the wingnut information bubble. So that alone could count as several investigations. But if you're inclined to count the Comer mess as just one, there is also the independent counsel investigation of his handling of classified documents, so that makes it 2+, which is good enough for this prediction.
Whether it has had any impact on Biden's popularity is hard to say, mostly because Biden is so unpopular and it is not totally clear whether Republican attempts to drum up a scandal have contributed to that. I think Biden's low approval has more to do with the public's view of the economy and the feeling that the world is going down the tubes while he is in charge. I don't think anyone who doesn't already hate Biden is paying any attention to the investigations.
6. The Israeli government will fall in 2023, meaning there will either be another Israeli election in 2023 or one will be scheduled during the year.
Wrong. The Netanyahu government is really unpopular but it has lasted a whole year.
7. The War in Ukraine will still be raging at the end of 2023.
Right.
8. The U.S. will continue to send aid and military supplies to Ukraine at the end of 2023, although a significant portion of the Republican party (at least 40%) will be opposed to that aid.
I'm going to count this one as right. Congress has refused to approve the Biden Administration's latest aid proposal for Ukraine, but that's about funding for next year. The Administration still has aid money to spend based on an appropriation passed earlier in the year. In fact, just a few days ago, it sent more military aid to Ukraine. As for the second part (at least 40% of Republicans opposing aid to Ukraine) is clearly right.
9. Biden's approval in the 538 Presidential approval average will still be underwater (more disapproval than approval) but slightly better, with at least 45% approval in the average.
Wrong. In fact, Biden's approval has gotten worse in the past year (from 42.1% on December 31, 2022 to 39.3% today)
10. Ron DeSantis will declare a presidential run in 2023 and by the end of the year he will be polling ahead of Trump (use 538 polling average if available).
I guess I got the first half of that right, but the second half was so wrong, I'm going to count this one as completely wrong.
11. Tayyip Erdoğan will still be President of Turkey (or Türkiye) at the end of 2023, either by winning the Presidential election, cheating in the election, disregarding the election results and insisting he is President, couping his way to stay in office, etc. However he does it, Erdoğan will be in charge.
Right. Ole Tayyip didn't even have to do anything as creative as a coup, he just won his reelection campaign.
12. The Supreme Court will not fully adopt the "independent state legislature doctrine" in Moore v. Harper, thus preserving the ability of state Governors and Courts to have a say in the manner of conducting an election. (That said, the NC legislature could still win in that case, But if so, it would be on narrower grounds).
Right. The Court rejected the "independent state legislature doctrine", thus giving the reactionary Roberts Court one of those not as crazy as everyone expected decisions so he could claim moderation.
13. Biden will not sign any major legislation in 2023, other than budgetary bills.
Right. This year the House proved that it is utterly incapable of passing any legislation other than most-pass continuing resolutions and debt ceiling deals, and it only barely managed to pass them.
14. The U.S. government will not default on its debt in 2023, although the House may try to use the debt ceiling to extract concessions out of Biden and the Democrats.
Right.
15. The U.S. government will not shut down in 2023.
Right. I can't believe I got this right. At various points in 2023, I considered a shut down to be all but certain.
16. Rishi Sunak will still be Prime Minister of the U.K.
Right. Sunak has lasted much longer than a head of lettuce.
17. There will be a "really bad" (meaning category 4 or higher) hurricane that will make landfall on the U.S, mainland in 2023.
Wrong. Why the fuck did I think I could predict the weather from months in advance?!?!?!
18. Right wing extremism will continue to be a major issue in the U.S. (that's the intro, not the prediction). There will be at least one mass killings (at least 5 killed or at least 10 injured/killed) by a rightwing extremist and/or racist in 2023.
Right. There's probably more than one example, but this is what comes to mind for me.
19. Vladamir Putin will still be in charge of Russia at the end of 2023 even though the war in Ukraine will still be dragging on and there will be rumblings of dissent in Russia, but no serious challenges to his authority.
Right. The rumblings aren't even that loud.
20. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. will be below 5% by the end of 2023.
Right. Although inflation is only 3.14% at the moment, the public seems to think inflation is still high (I still think it's because people are confusing prices with inflation)
21. Elon Musk will no longer be the owner of Twitter at the end of 2023 (note: if Twitter ceases to exist as a social media service, I will still get this right)
I'm going to count this one as wrong even though I guess I could argue that I a, technically right because Twitter ceased to exist in 2023 when it became X. X still exists and Musk is still the owner, so those technicalities won't save me from being wrong.
22. A Republican will be elected governor of Louisiana in 2023. (The current Democratic governor John Bel Edwards, is term limited)
Right. Jeff Landry won and will be governor in early 2024.
23. There will be no change in the head of state of any of the five former Soviet Central Asian "stans" (so Tokayev will still lead Kazakhstan, Mirziyoyev will still lead Uzbekistan, Japarov will still lead the Kyrgyz Republic, Rahmon will still lead Tajikistan, and Berdimuhamedow will still lead Turkmenistan. This isn't an official prediction, but if one does leave office for whatever reason it will be Rahmon)
Right. No change in leadership in Central Asia is always a pretty safe bet, although they do die sometimes (okay that hasn't been how leadership has changed in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but still the current leaders are seem to be planning to stick around for life)
The Tally
I got 17 right and 6 wrong, that's 73.913% right! That is the best I've done in over 10 years! Am I getting better at this again (after a serious dip in the past few years), or am I just making easier predictions? I have no idea but here is the record:
2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)
What are we in for in 2024? No one knows! But that's won't stop me from guessing under the illusion that they are educated guesses. Tune in just two minutes from when this post will appear for the appearance of my new prediction post.
2. Donald Trump will be indicted for at least one crime in 2023.
Right! 91 times right, in fact! But I'm only going to count this right once.
3. Trump will still be running for President at the end of 2023 (i.e. he will not announce he is no longer running, and he will still be alive)
Right! Okay this was a bit of a gimme. Trump wasn't ever going to announce he wasn't running. He could have dropped dead. So it was a half gimme. I still get points for gimmes.
4. No Supreme Court Justices will leave the Court or announce they are leaving the Court in 2023.
Right! Barring a sudden death, we're probably stuck with these set of yahoos until the next Republican president. All the really old ones are conservative and there is no way they are stepping down without assurances that their successor will continue the reactionary court.
5. Republicans in the House will launch several (2+) investigations into the Biden White House and/or the Biden family, but it will not have any clear impact on Biden's popularity or the Democrats other than exciting Republicans.
I'm going to call this right even though there are a few details that are arguable. First, it is not easy to count how many investigations there have been. James Comer has led investigations that he groups under the broad umbrella of the Biden family investigation. But it looks to me like he has tossed every bullshit rightwing conspiracy theory about Joe Biden, his kids, his brother, or whatever else they are ranting about on Fox News this week into a big mess that only makes sense if you are snuggled deep into the wingnut information bubble. So that alone could count as several investigations. But if you're inclined to count the Comer mess as just one, there is also the independent counsel investigation of his handling of classified documents, so that makes it 2+, which is good enough for this prediction.
Whether it has had any impact on Biden's popularity is hard to say, mostly because Biden is so unpopular and it is not totally clear whether Republican attempts to drum up a scandal have contributed to that. I think Biden's low approval has more to do with the public's view of the economy and the feeling that the world is going down the tubes while he is in charge. I don't think anyone who doesn't already hate Biden is paying any attention to the investigations.
6. The Israeli government will fall in 2023, meaning there will either be another Israeli election in 2023 or one will be scheduled during the year.
Wrong. The Netanyahu government is really unpopular but it has lasted a whole year.
7. The War in Ukraine will still be raging at the end of 2023.
Right.
8. The U.S. will continue to send aid and military supplies to Ukraine at the end of 2023, although a significant portion of the Republican party (at least 40%) will be opposed to that aid.
I'm going to count this one as right. Congress has refused to approve the Biden Administration's latest aid proposal for Ukraine, but that's about funding for next year. The Administration still has aid money to spend based on an appropriation passed earlier in the year. In fact, just a few days ago, it sent more military aid to Ukraine. As for the second part (at least 40% of Republicans opposing aid to Ukraine) is clearly right.
9. Biden's approval in the 538 Presidential approval average will still be underwater (more disapproval than approval) but slightly better, with at least 45% approval in the average.
Wrong. In fact, Biden's approval has gotten worse in the past year (from 42.1% on December 31, 2022 to 39.3% today)
10. Ron DeSantis will declare a presidential run in 2023 and by the end of the year he will be polling ahead of Trump (use 538 polling average if available).
I guess I got the first half of that right, but the second half was so wrong, I'm going to count this one as completely wrong.
11. Tayyip Erdoğan will still be President of Turkey (or Türkiye) at the end of 2023, either by winning the Presidential election, cheating in the election, disregarding the election results and insisting he is President, couping his way to stay in office, etc. However he does it, Erdoğan will be in charge.
Right. Ole Tayyip didn't even have to do anything as creative as a coup, he just won his reelection campaign.
12. The Supreme Court will not fully adopt the "independent state legislature doctrine" in Moore v. Harper, thus preserving the ability of state Governors and Courts to have a say in the manner of conducting an election. (That said, the NC legislature could still win in that case, But if so, it would be on narrower grounds).
Right. The Court rejected the "independent state legislature doctrine", thus giving the reactionary Roberts Court one of those not as crazy as everyone expected decisions so he could claim moderation.
13. Biden will not sign any major legislation in 2023, other than budgetary bills.
Right. This year the House proved that it is utterly incapable of passing any legislation other than most-pass continuing resolutions and debt ceiling deals, and it only barely managed to pass them.
14. The U.S. government will not default on its debt in 2023, although the House may try to use the debt ceiling to extract concessions out of Biden and the Democrats.
Right.
15. The U.S. government will not shut down in 2023.
Right. I can't believe I got this right. At various points in 2023, I considered a shut down to be all but certain.
16. Rishi Sunak will still be Prime Minister of the U.K.
Right. Sunak has lasted much longer than a head of lettuce.
17. There will be a "really bad" (meaning category 4 or higher) hurricane that will make landfall on the U.S, mainland in 2023.
Wrong. Why the fuck did I think I could predict the weather from months in advance?!?!?!
18. Right wing extremism will continue to be a major issue in the U.S. (that's the intro, not the prediction). There will be at least one mass killings (at least 5 killed or at least 10 injured/killed) by a rightwing extremist and/or racist in 2023.
Right. There's probably more than one example, but this is what comes to mind for me.
19. Vladamir Putin will still be in charge of Russia at the end of 2023 even though the war in Ukraine will still be dragging on and there will be rumblings of dissent in Russia, but no serious challenges to his authority.
Right. The rumblings aren't even that loud.
20. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. will be below 5% by the end of 2023.
Right. Although inflation is only 3.14% at the moment, the public seems to think inflation is still high (I still think it's because people are confusing prices with inflation)
21. Elon Musk will no longer be the owner of Twitter at the end of 2023 (note: if Twitter ceases to exist as a social media service, I will still get this right)
I'm going to count this one as wrong even though I guess I could argue that I a, technically right because Twitter ceased to exist in 2023 when it became X. X still exists and Musk is still the owner, so those technicalities won't save me from being wrong.
22. A Republican will be elected governor of Louisiana in 2023. (The current Democratic governor John Bel Edwards, is term limited)
Right. Jeff Landry won and will be governor in early 2024.
23. There will be no change in the head of state of any of the five former Soviet Central Asian "stans" (so Tokayev will still lead Kazakhstan, Mirziyoyev will still lead Uzbekistan, Japarov will still lead the Kyrgyz Republic, Rahmon will still lead Tajikistan, and Berdimuhamedow will still lead Turkmenistan. This isn't an official prediction, but if one does leave office for whatever reason it will be Rahmon)
Right. No change in leadership in Central Asia is always a pretty safe bet, although they do die sometimes (okay that hasn't been how leadership has changed in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but still the current leaders are seem to be planning to stick around for life)
The Tally
I got 17 right and 6 wrong, that's 73.913% right! That is the best I've done in over 10 years! Am I getting better at this again (after a serious dip in the past few years), or am I just making easier predictions? I have no idea but here is the record:
2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)
What are we in for in 2024? No one knows! But that's won't stop me from guessing under the illusion that they are educated guesses. Tune in just two minutes from when this post will appear for the appearance of my new prediction post.
