What time is it? Why it's the end of the year! The time that I reach back one year into my archives, find the predictions I made at the beginning of the year, and try to figure out just how completely wrong I was.
My 2022 predictions post is here, but I cut and pasted each prediction below. Without further ado, here are my 2022 predictions, with my grade:
My 2022 predictions post is here, but I cut and pasted each prediction below. Without further ado, here are my 2022 predictions, with my grade:
1. Democrats will lose control of both the House and Senate in the 2022 elections.
How do I grade this one, wrong or half-right? I think the emphasis was on the word "both", so I am gonna call it wrong even though the Democrats retained control of the Senate (while losing the House).
2. Neither the Build Back Better, nor any scaled down version of it, will pass in 2022.
Wrong. Build Back Better did not pass, but the Inflation Reduction Act did, and it was essentially a scaled down version of BBB.
3. No election reform bill will pass Congress in 2022.
Wrong. It just barely made it before the end of the year, but it passed! I am happy to be wrong about this prediction.
4. If there is a COVID surge in December 2022, it will be smaller in terms of number of new infections than the current Omicron surge in December 2021.
Right. Although this year's surge is not only smaller than the December 2021 surge, it also is somewhat overshadowed by the simultaneous Flu and RSV surge.
5. At least one new vaccine (or a booster) that targets later variants of COVID-19 will be approved in 2022 and will be widely available in the U.S. by the end of 2022.
Right, Bivalent booster baby!
6. Trump or the Trump Organization will have at least one criminal charge filed against it in 2022.
Right, and not just a charged in 2022, it was also found guilty on all 17 counts!
7. The U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade.
Right, though I'm not happy to be right on this one.
8. The U.S. Supreme Court will strike down the "vaccine or test" mandate that the Biden Administration has issued under OSHA (the Court may just strike down that rule, or go further and gut or overturn OSHA altogether. I'm agnostic about how far they will go. My prediction is just that the rule won't survive the Court's ruling).
I'm going to count this one as right, although technically what happened is the Court stayed the mandate pending appeal (which meant the Court found a "likelihood of success on the merits", meaning it expected it would probably strike down the mandate) but then the Biden Administration withdrew the mandate rule before the appeal could proceed.
9. Russia will not invade Ukraine in 2022.
Well, that was pretty spectacularly wrong.
10. The current Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett will fall before the end of the year (Note: I am predicting the government will fall and there will be a new election, or at least a new election will be scheduled. I am not making any prediction about whether Bennett will still be prime minister when the dust clears).
Right. Ugh and it paved the way for a Bibi comeback.
11. John Fetterman will win the PA Democratic primary for the Senate seat currently occupied by Pat Toomey.
12. Mehmet Oz will win the PA Republican primary for that Senate seat.
Also right!
13. The Democratic candidate will win the PA senate seat in the general election.
Also also right!
14. Josh Shapiro will be elected Governor of Pennsylvania.
Also also also right!
15. The inflation rate in 2022 in the U.S. will be under 3% by the end of 2022.
Really really wrong. While 7.1% was below the expected rate of 7.3% (and thus reported as good news), inflation in general turned out to be a much bigger problem than I expected at the end of last year.
16. Macron will be defeated by a far right candidate in the French presidential election (either a defeat by Eric Zemmour, or a candidate from LePen's National Rally party will count).
Happy to be wrong about this. Zemmour didn't even do that well (he got 7.07%, coming in 4th place). He was probably peaking at the end of 2021, just when I made the prediction.
17. Biden's approval on the 538 presidential approval polling average will be underwater (i.e. higher disapproval than approval) at the end of 2022.
Right! And it stayed underwater all year long.
18. Although Donald Trump will be widely expected to run for president in 2024, he will not formally launch his campaign in 2022.
Wrong. I guess I didn't account for his desperation to change the narrative from how he lost the midterms for the GOP, his bottomless attempts to get attention, and his mistaken belief that officially becoming a candidate would somehow make him immune from being charged criminally.
19. There will be at least one mass (meaning 5 or more deaths, or at least 10 wounded) violent incident perpetrated by a rightwing extremist or a group of rightwing extremists in 2022.
Right, unfortunately. And I think there was more than one example. I'm gonna go with the Buffalo shooting.
20. There will be no new nuclear deal (or any form of resurrection of the JCPOA) between the U.S. and Iran in 2022.
Right. There is no new deal, and after an initial push to restore the JCPOA, the U.S. has all but given up trying.
21. The Taliban will face a serious challenge to its leadership, or an insurgency that takes control of at least some portion of Afghanistan in 2022.
Wrong. There is still an insurgency in Afghanistan, but it has not been very successful and does not seem to control any significant territory.
22. I will leave the U.S. in 2022.
Right! I guess I didn't talk about it in any detail here, but I did make a reference to the fact that I was running off to Scotland in August.
The Tally
I got 14 right and 8 wrong, a 63.636% success rate! Not my best, but the best I've done in several years. Here is how 2022 compares with prior years:
2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
Of course, one glaring hole in these prediction exercises is that I always completely miss the completely unexpected yet big deal things that happened (like, for example, the worst thing I have ever experienced, which will forever tar 2022 in my mind as an unbelievably shitty year).
What is in store for 2023? How the fuck should I know? But I'm going to make some predictions anyway. My 2023 predictions post will appear two minutes are this one.
