If this is the real agreement, there are a lot of big deal terms in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The ones that really jump out at me:
- The agreement says that it is binding on the U.S. and "their allies in the current war" (i.e. Israel) (Para. 1)
- The agreement requires "an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon" (Para. 1)
- The agreement requires that the parties don't just stop shooting at each other but also "refrain from the threat" of force as well. (Para. 1) Trump arguably violated that part of the agreement this morning.
- The U.S. commits to withdrawing its forces "from the surrounding area" within 30 days of signing. (para. 4) I'm not sure what the "surrounding area" means, but the U.S. has permanent bases in Turkey, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar that are all arguably in the "surrounding area." It is hard to believe that the U.S. agreed to dismantle any of those bases (the Turkish bases are really NATO bases) so maybe this just means the U.S. will withdraw some battleships from the Persian Gulf. But again, the U.S. has regularly had battleships in the Persian Gulf (the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain). I don't know how to read this without thinking it might mean a draw down of U.S. forces from the region from what they had before the war with Iran. At the same time, I can't believe the U.S. actually agreed to that.
- Immediately after signing, Iran gets all U.S. sanctions over the sale of its oil removed, including related limitations on its "banking, insurance, transportation, and the like." (para. 10) If I am understanding this correctly, this is a huge concession to Iran allowing it to sell oil completely sanction free for the first time in decades. This is especially good for Iran because it applies "immediately" when oil prices are still high from Strait of Hormuz's closure before the effects of the agreement fully change the market price.
- The U.S. is also committing to and all sanctions against Iran, both "primary and secondary" in the final agreement (which may never happen) (para. 7)
- The agreement states that "frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available." (para. 11) While it does not say this will happen "immediately" upon signing (like some other provisions do), it also does not talk about any delay before this provision applies so it seems to mean it will happen right away. This is another massive concession to Iran. The U.S. is holding approximately $2 billion is Iranian assets, as well as real estate worth approximately $50 million. Most of these assets have been frozen since the Iranian revolution in 1979 and Iran has never fully recovered control of those assets, even under the Obama nuclear deal with Iran. Plus there are a total of between $100 billion and $120 billion in frozen assets in the rest of the world, mostly because of U.S. pressure and UN security council resolutions. Because the agreement says it "will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council" (para. 14) that could mean that the Iran will regain control of all of its assets for the first time since the current regime took control of the country.
- In addition to those amounts, Iran will get another $300 billion "for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran" within 60 days of signing. (para. 6) Because this is a separate paragraph from the paragraphs about unfreezing Iranian assets and sanction relief, this appears to just be a cash payment on top of all of that, essentially war reparations.
- The agreement does say that Iran "reiterates" it will never produce nuclear weapons. (para. 8) This looks like something that Iran has conceded, but it really isn't. The word "reiterates" is key. Iran has been saying it will never produce a nuclear weapon for decades. It committed to that in the JCPOA and it said it repeatedly both before and after that agreement. In the 1990s, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa declaring nuclear weapons to be contrary to Islam, which would mean that the Islamic Republic of Iran could never produce such weapons. But Iran-hawks in the U.S. and Israel simply did not believe Iran's multiple pronouncements against developing nuclear weapons. If they didn't believe Iran before, why would they believe them now? I don't see this "reiteration" as contributing anything that the world didn't already have from Iran.
- Until a final agreement is reached, Iran is allowed to maintain "the status quo" of its nuclear program. (para. 11) Which means that while all the goodies Iran (the payment of reparations, the unfreezing of assets, the end of sanctions, the removal of U.S. forces) will happen either immediately or within 60 days, they don't have to give up anything else--meaning nuclear material will not be removed from the country--until that mythical final agreement is reached, if ever.
- Iran does not even have to start negotiating the final agreement until the U.S. blockade of the Strait is removed, Iran is allowed to sell its oil without any U.S. sanctions, and its assets are unfrozen. (para. 13) In other words, Iran gets most of its goodies before they even have to discuss making any concessions to the U.S.
I don't see how anyone can see this as anything other than a complete capitulation of the Trump Administration to Iran. Iran has conceded nothing that it has not conceded before and in return for that nothing is getting an end to all U.S. sanctions, the removal of U.S. forces that threaten it, a return of its assets that the U.S. seized almost 50 years ago, and an extra $300 billion dollar payment on top of that. Also, the U.S. needs to force Israel to stop invading Lebanon somehow, with no requirement that Iran rein in Hezbollah or any of its other allied forces in the region.
