Saturday, January 01, 2022

2022 Predictions

Continuing my longstanding beginning-of-the-year tradition, I will post a bunch of predictions so at the end of 2022, we can all look back and see how full of shit I am. As usual, the following are what I think will happen by the end of 2022, not necessarily what I want to happen. (Some of them I definitely don't want to happen). Also I try to only write down predictions that can be ruled as right or wrong at the end of the year in some objective fashion. Vague predictions like "COVID will be better by the end of the year" don't cut the mustard, or any condiment, around here. This is an objective condiment blog!

Without further ado and in no particular order:

1. Democrats will lose control of both the House and Senate in the 2022 elections.

2. Neither the Build Back Better, nor any scaled down version of it, will pass in 2022.

3. No election reform bill will pass Congress in 2022.

4. If there is a COVID surge in December 2022, it will be smaller in terms of number of new infections than the current Omicron surge in December 2021.

5. At least one new vaccine (or a booster) that targets later variants of COVID-19 will be approved in 2022 and will be widely available in the U.S. by the end of 2022.

6.  Trump or the Trump Organization will have at leas one criminal charge filed against it in 2022.

7. The U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade.

8. The U.S. Supreme Court will strike down the "vaccine or test" mandate that the Biden Administration has issued under OSHA (the Court may just strike down that rule, or go further and gut or overturn OSHA altogether. I'm agnostic about how far they will go. My prediction is just that the rule won't survive the Court's ruling).

9. Russia will not invade Ukraine in 2022.

10. The current Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett will fall before the end of the year (Note: I am predicting the government will fall and there will be a new election, or at least a new election will be scheduled. I am not making any prediction about whether Bennett will still be prime minister when the dust clears).

11. John Fetterman will win the PA Democratic primary for the Senate seat currently occupied by Pat Toomey.

12. Mehmet Oz will win the PA Republican primary for that Senate seat.

13. The Democratic candidate will win the PA senate seat in the general election.

14. Josh Shapiro will be elected Governor of Pennsylvania.

15. The inflation rate in 2022 in the U.S. will be under 3% by the end of 2022.

16. Macron will be defeated by a far right candidate in the French presidential election (either a defeat by Eric Zemmour, or a candidate from LePen's National Rally party will count).

17. Biden's approval on the 538 presidential approval polling average will be underwater (i.e. higher disapproval than approval) at the end of 2022.

18. Although Donald Trump will be widely expected to run for president in 2024, he will not formally launch his campaign in 2022.

19. There will be at least one mass (meaning 5 or more deaths, or at least 10 wounded) violent incident perpetrated by a rightwing extremist or a group of rightwing extremists in 2022.

20. There will be no new nuclear deal (or any form of resurrection of the JCPOA) between the U.S. and Iran in 2022.

21. The Taliban will face a serious challenge to its leadership, or an insurgency that takes control of at least some portion of Afghanistan in 2022.

22. I will leave the U.S. in 2022.

Will I be right or wrong? I have no idea (but, at this moment, they all feel right to me, which is why they got on the list). Tune in on December 31, 2022 at 11:59pm to find out how badly I did this time!