Tuesday, August 19, 2008

gallup tracking poll reminder

the daily tracking poll has a margin of error of +/-2%. that means that a spread by as much as 4% is probably nothing but statistical noise in the sample. although everyone acts as if there is a lot of movement in this race, it looks to me like obama has been pretty steady at around 46% and mccain has been steady at about 43%. there really has been no significant movement at all in the tracking poll in recent weeks.

the state-by-state polling data, of course, is a different issue.