Wednesday, September 15, 2010

this might be crazy, but maybe she can pull it off

it's pretty fun to watch all the fighting on the right about o'donnell. and the delaware senate campaign really does have a lot of entertainment potential.

plus, right blogistan is really awesome this morning. check out this post about why o'donnell could win the general election:
Five Reasons O'Donnell Could Win

1. Coons could always self-implode. There is a small but nontrivial chance any politician will simply blow up. Odds are maybe 2% of that, but it's somethin'.

2. Coons isn't ideologically suited for Delaware himself. He's called a "bearded Marxist" -- he too may be too extreme for Delaware. Thus, we'd have a Republican too far to the right battling a Democrat too far to the left. Not great chances, but not an impossible longshot, either.

3. Coons may not be a great practical candidate, either. Mike Castle just wins elections -- until now -- so when he entered the race no more experienced Republican challenged him. And, I think, no serious Democrat rose to the challenge, either. Just Coons. (In fact, he was unopposed for the nomination -- apparently no one else wanted it, like O'Donnell versus Biden.) So he's not a superman, either.

4. O'Donnell could actually grow as a candidate. She's got a serious amount of work to do, and I don't know if she can do it. But until now she has been entirely on the defensive against attacks from within her party (which is something that has caused a lot of anger among her supporters). Now she's freed up from the constant defenses to do something besides all that. Will she rise? Probably. Enough? Probably not -- but who knows.

5. The Red Wave might even be bigger than we thought. Actually, I don't know about this one, because I was already thinking of an even bigger Red Wave than most people were and even my big Red Wave, in my mind at least, wasn't enough to do the trick. But with a little help from Coons, and a little help from herself... who knows.
(emphasis added)

check out all those weasel words! so to sum up, ace thinks that o'donnell might have an outside chance of winning because: (1) coons could screw up really badly (though there is no specific thing he sees that would cause that), (2) coons "may be" too left wing for delaware (but he doesn't seem too sure), (3) her opponent may not be a good campaigner (but again, he's not sure. ace is sure, however, that coons is not an imaginary alien from a series of comic books), (4) o'donnell may get better (but probably not), and (5) the national mood in favor of republicans might be enough to overcome the fact that o'donnell really really sucks as a candidate (but again, probably not).

but why did ace stop at just five? you can always make up more unlikely reasons for o'donnell to win. has he even considered these:

(6) coons might turn out to be jeffrey dahmer, if he faked his own death in prison years ago and has since then lay low as a mild-mannered county executive (but, i guess the odds of that are pretty low)

(7) coons might be abducted by aliens and not returned soon enough for him to campaign before the general election (okay, the odds are low for this too, but who knows?)

(8) let's not rule out spontaneous human combustion (sure, the SHC fad has passed, but it could come back before the election!)

(9) mass amnesia hitting democratic voters. it is possible that all the democrats will forget to vote on election day. (another small chance, i'd say less than 2%, but it could happen!)

(10) o'donnell might be a skilled mass hypnotist. (just because she hasn't displayed those abilities yet, doesn't mean she isn't saving them for the general!)