Sunday, February 13, 2011

syria is not next

Assad Pictures
now that ben ali and mubarak are gone, i keep seeing articles floating ideas of who might be next. the main candidates seem to be algeria, yemen, jordan and syria.

i'm not sure why syria keeps making the list, other than wishful thinking on the part of the author. there have been serious signs of unrest in the those other three countries, things like: multiple demonstrations, conflicting reports about restrictions on internet and cell phone use in algeria, the dismissal of the jordanian cabinet, yemen's president vowing not to run for re-election in two years, etc.

but in syria (as far as i can tell) there just hasn't been that much sign of a strong democratic movement. a call by online activists called for a "day of rage" on february 4th and 5th resulted in a few sparsely attended demonstrations in some of the smaller cities, but not much in the major population centers. it is true that syria recently lifted its previously imposed restrictions on facebook and youtube. but it looks like that has more to do with the government's belief that it can more track activists if it stops forcing them to go through proxy servers than any concession to democratic pressure.

so while the "revolutionary wave" (or whatever you want to call it) may spread further, i just don't see it spreading to syria in the immediate future. then again, what do i know? i didn't think the tunisian protests would spread to egypt.