Wednesday, June 08, 2011

in which i make a much too early attempt to guess the results of the GOP primary

i'm increasingly convinced the GOP nominee will be romney. romney's main constituency in the GOP is the chamber of commerce republican, the people who actually fund the party and usually call the shots from behind the scenes. romney's biggest problem are the social conservatives and true believer tea party types. they don't trust him because he's been all over the map on the stuff that they care about the most. romney was the favorite among the business faction in 2008, but the social conservatives united around huckabee, giving romney embarrassing losses in iowa and new hampshire. the business people freaked out about the prospects of huckabee and coalesced around mccain as an acceptable alternative.

which is why this is good news for romney. the more evangelical teatards in the race the harder it will be for that faction to coalesce around a single candidate and the better for him. romney himself realizes it, which is why he's hoping for palin to jump in too. romney also has the honor of being least unacceptable of the prospective candidates, which means when people's first choices drop out, romney is an acceptable alternative to more GOP voters than anyone else. so unless the wackodoodles find a way to unit under a single banner relatively early, i think it will be romney.