Monday, November 28, 2011

the anyone but romney bulge

this is the best graphic representation i've seen of it yet! check it out as the anti-mittens bulge moves from bachmann to perry to cain and now to gingrich.

the only question is where it will go when newt does his usual newtering. will it continue down the line to santorum? (let's face it, it will skip paul) or will it loop back to give bachmann, perry or cain another moment in the sun? the thing to remember is that even when the bulge leaves it doesn't go totally down to zero. so bachmann, for example, still has 3-6%. perry is still dropping, but is still likely to hold onto his own 5% or so. same with cain. assuming those true bachmann/perry/cain believers are just as anti-romney as the bulgers, then where do they go when their candidate drops out? if they all go to the same last-non-romney standing, all those little percentages can add up to a significant bounce.