Sunday, January 01, 2012

2012 predictions

here, in no particular order, are my predictions for the coming year. as always, the following is what i think is likely to happen and not what i necessarily want to happen:

1. the republican party nomination fight will end no later than the day after "super tuesday" (super tuesday being march 6th, i mean march 7th)

2. mitt romney will be the republican presidential candidate.

3. mitt not pick anyone currently running for president as his running mate.

4. president obama will be reelected as president of the u.s.

5. the democrats will retake the house of representatives, but will lose the senate.

6. the individual mandate in the affordable care act will be upheld by the supreme court.

7. field marshal tantawi will no longer be in charge of egypt by the end of the year.

8. tunisia will be the only country that changed government as part of the "arab spring" in 2011 that will not have any more widespread protests or civil-war style violence in 2012.

9. syria will descend into a civil war in 2012. by the end of the year, the conflict will not be over but assad will still be in charge of at least part of the country.

10. putin will return to the presidency of russia in 2012, as the current protests will not develop into a serious threat to his election prospects.

11. at least one country will leave the euro zone in 2012, but the euro will still exist by the end of 2012.

12. scott walker will be recalled as governor of wisconsin.

13. the occupy movement will pop up now and then with occasional protests and occupations during 2012. however the media will not treat it as a segment of the electorate as it has the tea party, and the occupy movement will not be credited with anything that happens or doesn't happen in the 2012 election.

14. nothing major will happen on the israeli/palestinian conflict. by that i mean: (a) there won't be a final israeli-palestinian peace deal, (b) hamas will remain in control of gaza, and (c) hamas and fatah will not have a real reconciliation in which they end up sharing power.

15. egypt will cease cooperating in the blockade of gaza, at least for a brief period of time.

16. neither the u.s. nor israel will attack iran militarily during 2012.

17. iran will not test a nuclear weapon in 2012, or otherwise demonstrate that it has one.

18. the central government of iraq will become clearly authoritarian during 2012. (i'm not sure--and thus not confident enough to make a prediction--whether this will result in civil-war style violence with the sunni arabs).

19. none of the central asian former soviet republics (i.e. kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, uzbekistan, tajikistan, or turkmenistan) will have a different head of state at the end of they year than they had at the beginning of the year.

20. although president saleh's alleged resignation in 2011 appears to be bullshit, he and his cohorts really won't be in charge of yemen by the end of 2012.

21. the unemployment rate in the u.s. will still be above 8% by the end of 2012.

22. there won't be any major changes in the north korean system in 2012, notwithstanding the ascension of kim jong-un.

this year i'm not going to make a personal prediction.

i'll check back in at the end of the year to see how ridiculously wrong i ended up being.