Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Where are they going with the Moops case?

That's what I have been wondering. If the Supremes rule that people in states that use the federal exchange are not entitled to ACA-subsidies, the health insurance costs of people in a lot of key red states are going to spike. Most blue states set up their own state-based exchange, so blue-stater's rates will stay largely where they are. (One of the exceptions being PA, a blue state (at least in Presidential years) which uses the federal exchange thanks to our soon to be former governor).

That is going to pose a real political bind for Republican politicians for that state. They will be forced to choose to set up their own state exchange to make sure that their local health insurance market doesn't wreak havoc on their constituents' lives. I am sure those politicians will try to blame the ACA for the havoc, but it will be hard to maintain because in some neighboring blue state the havoc won't exist and the only real fix for the havoc is for the state to create its own exchange which would mean opting into the ACA more rather than moving away from it.

Of course, it is also likely that the GOP in states those states will just refuse to implement a state run exchange anyway and blame the ACA for the havoc, hoping that their constituents won't notice that other states that made different choices have a pretty different outcome. I'm not sure whether or not it will work politically. But that probably won't stop them from trying.