Friday, May 19, 2017

Maybe Trump already has bottomed out?

On Tuesday, the morning after it was revealed that Trump gave classified intelligence to the Russians, I wondered how much further his approval ratings could sink. As I wrote:
Because there is some portion of the public that will back Trump no matter what, there is a limit to how low he can go. But what is that floor? The lowest Trump has gone so far is 35%-59% on March 28. I suspect the floor is in the low-30s, at least until the next economic downturn. But maybe this revelation will be enough to push him into the upper-20s? We should know by the end of the week.
It is now the end of the week. Gallup's 3-day average has now fully absorbed all the news from when I wrote that post and Trump's approval/disapproval numbers have gone from 38% approval/57% disapproval to... 38%/56% this afternoon. In other words, it hasn't moved at all. Look at the chart for the poll in the past week. His disapproval number has been completely flat since Tuesday.

Does this mean that 38% is the portion of die-hard Trump supporters who can't be moved by news events no matter how bad they are? That's about 5-8 points higher than I thought. I still think it can go lower if we experience a serious economic downturn. But Trump's approval rating might have a 38% floor until that happens.