A political scientist I know told me years ago that on foreign affairs, who is the leader of a country does not matter that much. "Countries will do what is in their interest, regardless who is in charge." I got my friend to admit that there are exceptions, things like the Iraq War was a product of George W. Bush and I don't think would have happened with a different president. But aside from a few exceptions, I thought my friend was basically right. When something would happen, I would game out how each other country would react based on what their interest were in the incident. It was a fun mental exercise, but it was also roughly accurate.
But now in the age of right-wing populism I wonder that still works. President Trump regularly does things that seem to be directly contrary to clear American interests (like undermining the various international institutions that the U.S. created and which contain baked-in advantages for the U.S., like NATO and the WTO). In the UK, they are racing off the Brexit cliff notwithstanding their clear economic and political interests with the EU. Maybe the Iraq War-style exceptions are just getting to be more common. But if seems to me that the exceptions are on the verge of swallowing the rule.
But now in the age of right-wing populism I wonder that still works. President Trump regularly does things that seem to be directly contrary to clear American interests (like undermining the various international institutions that the U.S. created and which contain baked-in advantages for the U.S., like NATO and the WTO). In the UK, they are racing off the Brexit cliff notwithstanding their clear economic and political interests with the EU. Maybe the Iraq War-style exceptions are just getting to be more common. But if seems to me that the exceptions are on the verge of swallowing the rule.
