The theory, seemingly prevalent on the right, that liberals are manufacturing sexual assault allegations to keep the Supreme Court from getting a conservative swing vote is really odd. Even if Kavanaugh goes down, his replacement will be replaced by Donald Trump. Prevailing wisdom says that next appointee would probably be Amy Barrett (the one woman on Trump's short list from before he announced Kavanaugh). Barrett is a favorite of social conservatives and is probably more conservative than Kavanaugh. I take it as a given that seat will be filled by an arch-conservative no matter which individual ends up getting confirmed.
It is true that, in theory, if the Democrats beat the odds and take the Senate next month, the Democratic majority could encourage Trump to nominate a more moderate judge to increase the chances of confirmation. But there are two huge problems with that theory. First, in order for the Democrats to take the Senate that would mean that all three Democrats who voted to confirm Gorsuch will be reelected. Which means the Democrats will not be able to maintain a united opposition to a Gorsuch-like candidate, which is what they would have to do to get Trump to pick a more moderate choice. Second, the theory assumes that Donald Trump is emotionally capable of appointing a compromise candidate. I honestly don't think he has it in him. He will keep appointing rightwingers in his usual dominance display, even if they repeatedly get voted down (and they won't get voted if they don't have other problems like Kavanaugh does). No, even if the Democrats take the Senate, Trump will still get an big-time conservative on the court.
At least he can if he doesn't take Lindsay Graham's advice. The stupid thing about Graham's proposal is that is the only way that I can think of for the Democrats to be able to keep the seat open for the remainder of Trump's term. If Kavanaugh goes down and Trump idiotically appoints him again, after the Democrats get all these electoral gains in part because of the popularity of opposing Kavanaugh, there will be no problem with knocking down Brett a second time, and a third time, and a fourth time. And so on until we can finally get a different president who will appoint someone else.
It is true that, in theory, if the Democrats beat the odds and take the Senate next month, the Democratic majority could encourage Trump to nominate a more moderate judge to increase the chances of confirmation. But there are two huge problems with that theory. First, in order for the Democrats to take the Senate that would mean that all three Democrats who voted to confirm Gorsuch will be reelected. Which means the Democrats will not be able to maintain a united opposition to a Gorsuch-like candidate, which is what they would have to do to get Trump to pick a more moderate choice. Second, the theory assumes that Donald Trump is emotionally capable of appointing a compromise candidate. I honestly don't think he has it in him. He will keep appointing rightwingers in his usual dominance display, even if they repeatedly get voted down (and they won't get voted if they don't have other problems like Kavanaugh does). No, even if the Democrats take the Senate, Trump will still get an big-time conservative on the court.
At least he can if he doesn't take Lindsay Graham's advice. The stupid thing about Graham's proposal is that is the only way that I can think of for the Democrats to be able to keep the seat open for the remainder of Trump's term. If Kavanaugh goes down and Trump idiotically appoints him again, after the Democrats get all these electoral gains in part because of the popularity of opposing Kavanaugh, there will be no problem with knocking down Brett a second time, and a third time, and a fourth time. And so on until we can finally get a different president who will appoint someone else.
