I think the most likely outcome to the fallout from the Khashoggi murder is that MBS will stay in power and at some point the story will fade and investors will quietly creep back in. This will probably permanently take away the prince's shine as a bold new reformer, but I think he will survive because the only players in Saudi Arabia's politics these days are MBS's father and people that MBS found to be loyal enough to not sideline.
But even if that is so, that lost shine is going to seriously hurt the kingdom because it's economic model is failing and it is not clear if it can pull off the economic reforms it needs without a plausible front man to allow a country that is essentially a regime of reactionary religious fundamentalists run by a corrupt absolute dictator get the foreign investment it needs.
The only plausible scenario for MBS to lose power is if his father realizes that sticking with his son might doom his kingdom and decides to sideline him for another relative. But the fact that the King just put his son in charge of a restructuring of the country's intelligence agencies suggests that King Salman doesn't see it that way. Which means MBS is here to stay, even if it sinks KSA's best hope save its economy.
But even if that is so, that lost shine is going to seriously hurt the kingdom because it's economic model is failing and it is not clear if it can pull off the economic reforms it needs without a plausible front man to allow a country that is essentially a regime of reactionary religious fundamentalists run by a corrupt absolute dictator get the foreign investment it needs.
The only plausible scenario for MBS to lose power is if his father realizes that sticking with his son might doom his kingdom and decides to sideline him for another relative. But the fact that the King just put his son in charge of a restructuring of the country's intelligence agencies suggests that King Salman doesn't see it that way. Which means MBS is here to stay, even if it sinks KSA's best hope save its economy.
