Tuesday, April 02, 2019

People like the concept of a female candidate, but not actual candidates

A bunch of people have posted this chart to tout the fact that, at least in terms of social media activity, Bootie-Judge seems to be surging.

What jumped out at me is Abrams in second place and the most of the female declared presidential candidates at the bottom of the chart. If social media activity really indicates support (and I have my doubts that it does), this chart is more evidence for the phenomenon that female candidates are popular right up until they actually try to run for office.

Stacey Abrams has not declared that she is running for president, and I think it is unlikely that she will this year. And yet, by this measure at least, she is more popular than all of the declared female candidates.

It tracks what happened to Hillary Clinton, who was America's most admired woman for more than a decade, but whose approval rating cratered each time she ran for President. It is also like what some people call the Elizabeth Warren effect. In 2016 lots of people were saying they did not like Clinton but were not against all female candidates, they just wish a better one like Warren were running. Well this year Warren is running! And yet she is stuck in the second-tier of the polls, below the male declared candidates and, by this social media measure, below undeclared candidate Abrams too.