Thursday, June 20, 2019

This is no way for an unpopular president who never got a majority to run for reelection

A second Trump term would be an utter disaster for the country and the planet. I firmly believe that so I don't think anyone who feels as I do can afford to not do everything they can to get him out of office. The stakes are just too high.

Yet, this article is really reassuring. A clear majority of Americans say they will "definitely not" vote for Trump next year and Trump has no plan at all to reach out to any of them. He's not even going to campaign for any undecided votes.

In a way I agree with part of Trump's strategy. Elections are not won or lost by convincing voters to vote for a candidate. They are mostly about generating enough excitement to get the candidate's supporters to turn out to vote. Trump's problem is that his base tops out around 40% of the electorate. He doesn't have enough to win unless the turnout on the other side is really dismal. And everything he does to excite his base--like holding fascist rallies--is as much a motivator to vote for his opposition as it is his base. Trump's antics are really good at generating outrage from both sides (both outrage against the President's perceived enemies on one side, and outrage against the President himself on the other). Outrage drives people to the polls. But if both sides are stirred up, Trump will almost certainly lose.