Wednesday, January 01, 2020

2020 Predictions

Well look at that, another trip around the sun! Per my tradition, I will make a bunch of amazing common-sense predictions for the coming year, post them on the internet, and then look back at the end of the year to see how ridiculous my present common-sense turns out to be.

As always, the below are what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen. (And sometimes what I think will happen changes, so this is what I think will happen as of the time stamp on this post). I also try to limit my predictions that can be determined to be true or false with some degree of objectivity later (so you won't see any "America will be more respected by the end of 2020" but I could do "America will score higher on the SillyPollster poll of people who respect America in the 20 countries they sample at the end of 2020." Note: neither of those are real predictions, just examples of the kind of thing I can do)

Without further ado, here is my 2020 list:

1. Trump will be acquitted on all counts in the Senate after his impeachment trial.

2. No more than one Republican will vote to convict Trump on any count.

3. No new articles of impeachment will be passed by the House in 2020.

4. The Democratic nominee for President will be Joseph Biden. (I really keep going back and forth between him or Buttigieg, and very occasionally although not recently, Warren, but this is where I landed at year's end)

5. Joe Biden will have at least one possibly serious (also possibly we won't know how serious) medical issue in 2020.

6. Donald Trump will not debate the Democratic nominee. (I think there is a chance he will show up at a debate if the Democratic nominee is Biden because Biden is so terrible at those things, but zero chance if anyone else in the nominee. And even with Biden the odds are against Trump showing up. So my prediction is there will be no debate with Trump no matter who is the nominee).

7. Trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral vote in the 2020 general election.

8. Trump will not accept the outcome of the election.

9. The Democrats will hold a majority in the House and retake the Senate in the 2020 election.

10. After the 2020 election, the Democrats will have more trifectas than Republicans in the State Houses (currently Democrats have 15 trifectas to Republicans' 21)

11. The 2020 election will have the highest turnout in any national election in the past 20 years.

13. Trump will issue at least one pardon of at least one of his relatives, one of his current or former attorneys, or current or former employees.

14. The unemployment rate will be over 4.5% in November 2020 (the last employment report available before the end of the year). The "current" (November 2019) rate is 3.5%.

15. The UK will Brexit in 2020, although it will not be a "hard" (no-deal) Brexit, but rather Britain will accept some kind of transition deal with the EU.

16. The Hong Kong protests will die down by the end of 2020, although the issues underlying the protests will still be unresolved and the territory will not reintroduce or pass the extradition law that started the protests during 2020.

17. General Haftar will take control of Tripoli in Libya before the end of 2020.

18. The Maduro government will either lose power in Venezuela or face an armed rebellion.

19. Another rightwing populist government will gain power in Europe in 2020.

20. Single payer/medicare-for-all will be in the Democratic party platform in 2020, although only as a long-term aspiration.

21. There will be at least one major (>5 people killed) terrorist attack by a right-wing extremist in the U.S. during 2020, although the media will (mostly) not refer to it as terrorism.

I guess that's all I can come up with as a confident prediction. Tune in at years end to see just how full of shit I am!