Monday, March 30, 2020

Orban's gambit might mean the end of the EU as we currently know it

I am sure that Hungary will get a pass during the current COVID-19 crisis, but if Orban doesn't give up his dictatorial powers when the crisis is over (and I expect he won't), the EU could sanction Hungary by suspending its voting rights in the EU parliament or reducing or eliminating EU subsidies. I think they could even expel Hungary from the EU for failing to meet the Copenhagen criteria for membership.

But I don't think they will. There might be some symbolic slap-on-the-risk style sanction, but that will be it. Which will only encourage several other Eastern European states to follow Hungary's lead. That will change the EU and what it stands for forever. It is a bigger threat to the Union IMHO than Brexit ever was.