Wednesday, October 20, 2021

A horrible map can make me feel better

One surprise in the 2020 election was that Trump gained ground with Latino voters. Latinos are one of the fastest growing populations in the U.S.  While the Latino (or Hispanic or Latinx or whatever your favorite term is) population in the U.S. is a lot more diverse than it is often given credit for, it was hard to understand how the guy who called Mexicans rapists, fucked up the recovery effort from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, tried to associate the entire Spanish speaking community in the U.S. with MS-13, stole children from Latino parentsregularly scare-mongered about the Spanish-speaking hordes swarming the border, and made less than zero effort to campaign for any Latino votes could gain votes with that group.

While Trump just gained a few percentage points with a group that overall still leans Democrat, the possible implications for Trump's gain with Latinos are potentially staggering. It throws a monkey-wrench into the "Republicans are facing demographic doom" and "Blue Texas" theories that Democrats use to reassure themselves about the future. I personally have still not been able to fully get my head around it. If Latinos end up splitting more evenly between the two parties or even could be viewed as a area for further Republican growth that could completely transform Republicans' entire electoral strategy going forward, especially in a state like Texas.

But it looks like it isn't. Texas Republicans are still working off the assumption that Latino=Democrat, at least in their gerrymandering efforts. It is weird that I find that reassuring?