This post is pretty interesting. The author tries to figure out what I've been wondering about myself: have the disproportionate COVID deaths in "red" areas been big enough to make a difference in future elections. There are all kinds of problems with trying to figure out those questions. Obviously, partisan information is not on anyone's death certificate, nor does it say whether the deceased is among the portion of the population who votes. You can go with comparing death rates in "red" and "blue" counties, but COVID death statistics are imperfect and very uneven from state to state or sometimes county to county within a state.
And yet, he does the best he can. With all those caveats, it looks like the answer is no, it is not big enough to make a difference. Take this list of various swing states, assuming the author's highest-end estimates of the excess Republican deaths:
- Arizona: ~3,400 (2020 margin: Biden + 10,500)
- Georgia: ~4,500 (2020 margin: Biden + 11,800)
- Michigan: ~3,000 (2020 margin: Biden + 154,200)
- Nevada: ~1,900 (2020 margin: Biden + 33,600)
- Pennsylvania: ~6,500 (2020 margin: Biden + 80,600)
- Wisconsin: ~2,200 (2020 margin: Biden + 20,700)
- Alaska: ~200 (2020 margin: Trump + 36,200)
- Florida: ~10,700 (2020 margin: Trump + 371,700)
- Iowa: ~2,000 (2020 margin: Trump + 138,600)
- North Carolina: ~4,500 (2020 margin: Trump + 74,500)
- Ohio: ~7,800 (2020 margin: Trump + 475,700)
- Texas: ~15,200 (2020 margin: Trump + 631,200)
None of them even come close to closing the 2020 gap between presidential candidates. Even if the pandemic gets 100 times worse in terms of death numbers between now and November 2024, the excess Republican deaths would not be enough to flip a single red state.
