I've also wondered what Russia's off-ramp could possibly be for the conflict in Ukraine. I mean they could stop it today if the Russian military just stopped shooting and started leaving. But how would Putin justify that? And what would leaving mean? I'm sure the Ukrainian government and the world community would insist they leave, not just the area they invaded last week, but also that they let the Ukrainian government regain control of the two breakaway regions that Russia has effectively propped up since 2014 plus Crimea. So that won't happen.
So how does this end? I really can't see how it can in the near-term unless (a) the Russian economy collapses to such an extent that they literally cannot afford to stay, or (b) if Putin is overthrown by someone who wants to end of the war. Maybe there is some other possibility I have not thought of, but those seem like the only two so far.
Honestly, the best case scenario for Putin that I can imagine at this point is for Russia to reverse its setbacks in the past week and destroy the Ukrainian government. But then it would still have to occupy a country of 44 million who will continue to fight turning the country into a meat grinder of an insurgency. The U.S. had a more powerful military in a smaller country and with much more domestic public support going in and it still could not win that kind of war in Iraq. So even the best case scenario is a loss, just a slow painful quagmire for Russia (and even more painful for Ukraine, unfortunately).
It makes no sense for Putin to stay, but I can't imagine him leaving.
