One possible long-term effect of the war in Ukraine is it might end the popular understanding that Russia is a major economic or military power. For years commentators have mentioned that Russia "punches over its weight" (meaning it acts like a more powerful country than it really is). And yet, in the popular consciousness, Russia remained, if not a super-power, at least a major world. power.
And in some ways it is! Like other non-super-power-yet-major-powers (like France), Russia maintained enormous influence over its former colonies, the countries that were formally part of the Soviet Union. And yet, Russia is not in the same economic class as France. France's per capita GDP is more than three and a half times bigger than Russia's. So why do so many people think Russia is a major power?
- Lots of people grew up when Russia, or rather the Soviet Union, which was often just referred to as "Russia," really was a powerful country. At this point, only people over the age of around 40 have a first hand memory of the cold war (in 1991 when the Soviet Union fell, today's 40 year old would have been 11). But that's still a lot of people, and more importantly, the over 40 age cohort is where all of our politicians and most of the people in the media are.
- Russia is really big. Look at a world map. Russia is enormous. It has 11 time zones. It stretches across almost half of the Earth from east to west. Never mind that the population density in most of Russia's territory is extremely low--Russia has less than half as many people as the, much smaller in land area, U.S. Also, Russia is in the North, which means its image on flat maps are distorted to make its massive land area look even bigger. If you know nothing about the country and find it on the map, it looks big and powerful!
- Russia gets a lot of attention in the West. First, there's the legacy of the cold war tradition of casting Russians as villains. Second, there are a lot of Russians and other people from the former Soviet Union in the West. Third, Putin's Russia has taken an active role on the world stage, which means it is in the news a lot.
- Russia's wealth is visible in the West. Wealthy Russians tend to put their money in the West. Wealthy Russians like to buy mansions in London, expensive condos in New York, yachts in the Mediterranean. Ostentatious wealthy Russians are easy to find. Never mind that they are a tiny minority in their country, or that one of the reasons so much Russian wealth is in the U.S. and Europe is because if they keep it in Russia there is a real danger that it will be seized if they fall out of favor with Putin. There is a lot of poverty in Russia, but it is virtually invisible in the U.S.
- Russia has tended to go on military adventures that are "easy wins." Russia has actively used its military in the world in the past decade to decade and a half. But, until now, they have used it against much weaker opponents (like anti-Assad Syrian rebels, South Ossetians, Abkhazians, etc.) which has created a streak of "wins" that added to the aura of Russian power. That aura is enhanced by the fact that the U.S. failed at a series of much harder military challenges (e.g. the occupation of Iraq, propping up the Afghan government), which makes Russia's easy wins look better by contrast. I think Putin's big miscalculation in Ukraine is he thought it would be another easy win (like his 2014 Ukrainian adventures were), when actually it is turning into something more like the U.S. occupation of Iraq.
- Russia does not publicize the source of its economic power. Russia's economy is based almost entirely on oil and gas extraction. Russia does produce a lot of wheat, but in terms of actual income that is dwarfed by its enormous oil and gas income. People recognize that while the Persian Gulf has a lot of rich countries, the power they derive from that wealth is constrained by the limits of oil extraction and the whims of the international oil market. Many people do not think about Russia in the same way even though its economy is just as dependent on oil and gas. Russia simply does not have a diversified economy like a real global economic power has. It does not have much manufacturing. In short, Russia is Saudi Arabia pretending to be Germany.
- The Rightwing in the West idealizes Russia. Whether its because of Putin's efforts to actively support rightwing and separatist movements in the West, or because their own misunderstanding that a diverse multi-ethnic religiously diverse country like Russia is some kind of White Christians paradise, the right in the West vocally pumps up Putin's Russia, extolling its virtues and exaggerating its power. That has an effect on everyone, even fierce opponents of the right often accept the premise of Russian power.
- Global Institutions perpetuate the story of Russian power. Most current global institutions were created during the cold war when the USSR was a superpower and thus are based on the premise of Russian power. Russia gets a veto and a permanent seat on the UN Security Counsel. It has a major role in every international organization, which forces other countries to deal with Russia even when they otherwise would be outside Russia's sphere of influence. Russia also is central to organizations that it is not a part of, like NATO, which despite post-cold war denials is really designed from the bottom up to be an anti-Russian alliance.
So that's my list. What did I miss?
I should add that Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal with ICBMs that can reach anywhere in the world. Unlike the things I have listed above (my list is intended to be reasons that Russia is mistaken for a more powerful country than it is), nuclear Russia is a real reason to view it as powerful. For that one reason, Russia can be viewed as a powerful country.
