Thursday, May 19, 2022

Trump might help Democrats in Pennsylvania

If I had to predict how the Oz-McCormick vote count will go, it is that McCormick will win by a hair. After in-person votes were counted, Oz was ahead by a few thousand votes. But because Oz is the Trump-endorsed candidate, and McCormick was viewed as the option for whatever remaining non-Trumpy Republicans there are, he is likely to get most of the mail-in votes because voting by mail has become toxic to Trumpers.

But if McCormick narrowly wins, that is sure to provoke a temper-tantrum by the Trumpers. It hasn't even officially happened yet and the tantrum has already started! That fight within the GOP can only advantage the Democrats and will make it more likely that Fetterman will be PA's next Senator.

I'm convinced the only reason that both Warnock and Ossoff won the Georgia runoff in early 2021 is because Trump kept claiming that the Georgia election system was corrupt, which depressed the Republican vote and delivered control of the Senate to Democrats. Any narrow loss by Oz is likely cause the same charges about the PA electoral system, which could depress Republican turnout in November and giving Democrats an extra advantage in both the Senate and Governor's race.