Friday, September 23, 2022

Kazakhstan is an easy place for Russians to run

This makes sense, as it looks like the "partial mobilization" seems to be primarily targeting outlying regions in Russia where non-Russian minorities live. Kazakhstan has a long border with Russia, that is almost entirely places with large non-Russian propulations. Plus, Russian citizens can cross the border with Kazakhstan without a visa, so it is an easy place to run.

Still, Kazakhstan is a big country with a really low population of 18.5 million (to get a sense of how big and empty it is, it has the land area of 2/3 of the continental U.S. with a population that is smaller than just New York State). If just a million of the Russians entering Kazakhstan decided to stay (and didn't use KZ as a transit point to somewhere else), that would be a significant (over 5%) increase in the country's population which would have all sorts of effects on KZ.