Thursday, April 27, 2023

Biden's age is an issue, but so is Trump's

Nikki Haley says that Biden living to age 86, which is how old he would be at the end of his second term if reelected, is "not something that I think is likely."

Joe Biden is 80 years old now. According to the Social Security actuarial tables, Joe Biden has a 58.4% chance of being alive at age 86. I'm not sure where Haley draws the line on what is "likely" but I would say that a 41.6% chance of dying is less likely than a 58.4% chance of surviving.

And while I've got the actuarial tables open, Donald Trump is 76 years old now and he would be 83 at the end of his term if he wins the next presidential election. Based on the actuarial tables, he has a 64.5% chance of surviving to that point. So also more likely than not, but with less than a 6% difference in survival chances between Biden and Trump. Not that Haley is worried about Trump's chances of not surviving his term since she is challenging Trump in the GOP primary. But I am positive she will continue to not be worried about it after he inevitable loss in the primary and her almost as inevitable endorsement of Trump.

The bottom line is that both likely presidential candidates will have a significant, but less than 50%, chance of not surviving until the end of their presidential term.